1. Purpose and Scope of the Analysis
This report examines the cumulative USD-denominated performance of two groups of foreign investors in 2025:
Foreign investors who exited KKM in February 2025 and renewed their position as TL time deposits,
Foreign investors who first entered TL deposits after February 2025.
The central question is:
“Between February and December 2025, how much total USD return did the investor generate?”
All returns are expressed as cumulative period returns, not monthly yields.
2. Data Inputs & Methodology
2.1 TL Nominal Deposit Yield (Feb–Dec 2025)
Market averages for TL deposits in 2025:
1–6 month maturities: 38–45% APR
Effective cumulative yield for Feb–Dec: ≈ 30–35%
2.2 USD/TRY Exchange Rate Increase (Feb–Dec 2025)
Cumulative FX increase: ≈ 25%
2.3 USD-Based Return Formula (Cumulative)
USD Net Return = rₜₗ − ΔFX
Where:
rₜₗ = total TL yield
ΔFX = percentage increase in the USD/TRY exchange rate
This method isolates the investor’s real dollar-denominated performance by offsetting currency depreciation.
3. Foreign Investors Who Exited KKM in February 2025 and Renewed as TL Deposits Data
TL cumulative yield: ≈ 35%
USD/TRY cumulative increase: ≈ 25%
Calculation
35% − 25% = 10% cumulative USD return
Result
Foreign investors who exited KKM in February 2025 and shifted into TL time deposits earned approximately 10% cumulative USD return between February and December 2025.
This is a total return for the period; not a monthly yield.
4. Foreign Investors Who Entered TL Deposits After February 2025
Data
TL cumulative yield (Mar–Dec): ≈ 30%
FX increase (Mar–Dec): ≈ 22–23%
Calculation
30% − 22% = 7–8% cumulative USD return
Result
Foreign investors who entered TL deposits after February achieved 7–8% cumulative USD gain between March and December 2025.
5. TL Real Yield – A Key Indicator of Economic Stability
According to TUIK data:
TL deposits produced 7–8% real (inflation-adjusted) yield in 2025.
This confirms that TL time deposits created genuine purchasing-power value, supporting the positive USD-denominated performance.
6. Outlook for 2026 – Positive and Improving
Macroeconomic projections and CBRT policy guidance suggest:
Continued disinflation,
Sustained tight monetary policy,
Lower FX volatility,
Preservation of real interest rates.
Therefore:
TL deposits are expected to continue delivering positive returns in 2026. As inflation decreases toward the official 2026 target range, the real yield potential of TL deposits (TL deposit USD yield) may further strengthen, making TL instruments stable, predictable, and investor friendly.
7. Technical Summary Table
Investor Type
Period
TL Nominal Yield
FX Increase
USD Net Return (Cumulative)
TL Real Yield
KKM → TL Deposit (February 2025)
Feb–Dec
35%
25%
10%
7–8%
New TL Deposit Investor (After Feb)
Mar–Dec
30%
22–23%
7–8%
6–7%
8. IGA Law Firm Value Proposition for Foreign Investors
At IGA Law Firm, we provide foreign investors with integrated legal guidance, including:
TL–USD yield analysis & risk assessment
Deposit/BES/fund allocation strategies
FX risk optimization
Full management of the USD 500,000 Turkish Citizenship by Investment process
Bank account openings, fund selection, compliance & eligibility certification
End-to-end residence & citizenship application management
Our priority is to protect the investor’s USD value while ensuring a predictable, low risk citizenship pathway. The 2025 outcomes and 2026 projections strongly support this approach.
